WDPN31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W
/WARNING NR 07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 220000Z4 TO 250000Z7 APR 2005.
   A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM
NORTHWEST OF YAP ISLAND AND HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
   B. TD 03W IS RAPIDLY TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST
AND WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS IT ENTERS AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. 
   C. TD 03W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE DUE TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS.
   D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE
SIZED SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST TEAM: DELTA//
NNNN