WDPN31 PGTW 210300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W /WARNING NR 03// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 210000Z3 TO 240000Z6 APR 2005. A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP ISLAND AND HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THE CONVECTION HAS BECOME VERY DISORGANIZED. B. TD 03W CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH- EAST. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO RECEDE EASTWARD AND THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TRACK POLEWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. C. TD 03W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE DUE TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS. D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM. 3. FORECAST TEAM: DELTA// NNNN