WDPN31 PGTW 171500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W WARNING NR 18// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 171200Z1 TO 191200Z3 MAR 2005. A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W (ROKE) HAS CONTINUED TRACKING RAPIDLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND IS CURRENTLY LOCATED 70 NM NORTHEAST OF PALA- WAN ISLAND. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD POOL OF COLD, DRY AIR TO THE WEST WRAPPING INTO THE CYCLONE. B. A PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH HAS CAUSED THE SUBTROPICAL STEER- ING RIDGE TO WEAKEN OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, RESULTING IN A POLEWARD TURN IN THE TRACK OF TS 02W. THE STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH- EAST OF THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REBUILD AFTER TAU 12, CAUSING THE TRACK TO SHIFT WESTWARD BY TAU 24. TS 02W IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL IN VIETNAM BY TAU 48. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, COAMPS, GFDN, AFWA MM5, NCEP GFS, UKMET EGRR, TCLAPS, AND WBAR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. C. THE INTENSITY OF TS 02W IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW, DRY AIR INTRUSION AND WEAK OUTFLOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TS 02W. D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON SYSTEM ANALYSIS. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR A SMALL SYSTEM EM- BEDDED IN BACKGROUND FLOW. 3. FORECAST TEAM: BRAVO// NNNN