WDPN31 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W WARNING NR 12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 160000Z7 TO 210000Z3 MAR 2005.
   A. TYPHOON 02W (ROKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 625 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, IS TRACKING WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS.
    B. TY 02W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE SITUATED TO THE
NORTH FOR APPROXIMATELY THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, EGRR, MM5, GFDN, JGSM, JTYM, AVN, TCLAPS,
AND WBAR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WBAR. THIS FORE-
CAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
   C. THE INTENSITY OF TY 02W IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY CON-
STANT FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS AS THE SYSTEMS REMAINS IN AN AREA
OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. 
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 152129Z0 QUIKSCAT PASS. FORECAST
WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR A SMALL TO AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM.
   E. AFTER TAU 72, TY 02W SHOULD WILL BEGIN TO TRACK MORE SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY TOWARDS HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT
ENTERS AN AREA OF HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ONCE TY 02W MAKES LANDFALL
IT WILL CONTINUE TO FURTHER WEAKEN AS IT ENTRAINS DRY AIR. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN THE STEERING FLOW IS EXPECTED. 
3. FORECAST TEAM: DELTA//
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