WDPN31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W WARNING
NR 08//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 150000Z6 TO 200000Z2 MAR 2005.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF YAP, IS TRACKING WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS. A 150001Z7 INFRA-
RED SATELLITE IMAGE REVEALS CONVECTION BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER
A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. 
   B. TS 02W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT
SEPERATES FROM THE SHEAR LINE LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS.
   C. TS 02W IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEING PRODUCED BY A
SHEAR LINE. THE SYSTEM WILL BRIEFLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT 
TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES.
   D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR A SMALL SIZED
SYSTEM.
E. DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TS 02W WILL TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE SOUTH CHINA SEA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING RIDGE
LOCATED TO THE NORTH 
3. FORECAST TEAM: DELTA//
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