WDPN31 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W WARNING
/NR 06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 141200Z6 TO 191200Z3 MAR 2005.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF YAP, IS TRACKING WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS. A RECENT
QUIKSCAT PASS CONFIRMS THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS RESIDE IN THE
NORTHERN QUADRANTS WITH AN UNFLAGGED 40 KNOT WIND VERIFYING
THE CURRENT INTENSITY. 
   B. TS 02W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PHILIPPINES IN RESPONSE TO THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE
NORTH BUILDING WESTWARD WITH TIME. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED
ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
   C. TS 02W IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY IN A RELATIVELY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS. TS 02W IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT TRAVERSES THE ISLANDS OF CENTRAL PHIL-
IPPINES DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND. 
   D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE
SIZED SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN A WIND FIELD OF ENHANCED GRADIENT FLOW.
   E. DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TS 02W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR WEAK INTENSI-
FICATION AS MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT INCREASED OUTFLOW POTENTIAL. 
3. FORECAST TEAM: BRAVO//

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