WDPN31 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W WARNING
NR 04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 140000Z5 TO 170000Z7 MAR 2005.
   A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
EAST OF YAP, IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS. RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS DRY AIR ENTRAINING INTO THE
EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, AS A RESULT, TD 02W IS NOT
DEVELOPING AS RAPIDLY AS PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.
   B. TD 02W IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH-
EAST. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD, AS A RESULT
TD 02W IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO A MORE WESTWARD TRACK BY TAU 24. THE
SYSTEM IS ALSO FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY SLOW AS IT MOVES ALONG THE EXTREME
WESTERN EXTENT OF THE MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE AND INTO A WEAK COL.
THE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO THEN TURN SLIGHTLY EQUATORWARD AS ITS PRIMARY
STEERING INFLUENCE BECOMES AN APPROACHING RIDGE FROM THE WEST. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS.
   C. TD 02W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT LESS THAN A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. 
AFTER TAU 24, THE UPPER LEVEL POLEWARD DIVERGENCE, CURRENTLY SUSTAINING
THE SYSTEM, WILL BE WEAKENED BY THE APPROACH OF A MID LATITUDE TROUGH. 
   D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE
SIZED SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN A WINDFIELD OF ENHANCED GRADIENT FLOW.
3. FORECAST TEAM: ALPHA//
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