WDPN31 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W WARNING
NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 130000Z4 TO 160000Z7 MAR 2005.
   A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM
SOUTH OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
TD 02W IS BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED WITH DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING
TO CONSOLIDATE OVER A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE GOOD AS EVIDENCED BY THE RADIAL SPIRAL
BANDS.
   B. TD 02W IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH-
EAST. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SENDING THE SYSTEM ON A
MORE WESTWARD TRACK IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO WITH WBAR BEING A POLEWARD
OUTLIER. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS WITH ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE INFLUENCE OF WBAR.
   C. TD 02W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT AN APPROXIMATELY CLIMATO-
LOGICAL RATE EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO A FAVORABLE OUT-
FLOW. HOWEVER, THE INTENSIFICATION OF TD 02W IS EXPECTED TO LEVEL
OFF OR EVEN WEAKEN LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM EN-
COUNTERS INCREASED VERTICAL SHEAR AND REDUCED OUTFLOW DUE TO LINEAR
FLOW FROM THE EAST. 
   D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE
SIZED SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN A WINDFIELD OF ENHANCED GRADIENT FLOW
FROM THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST TEAM: BRAVO//

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