WTPN31 PGTW 161500 NAVOCEANO STENNIS SPACE CENTER MS//N16// MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 02W (ROKE) WARNING NR 014 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 161200Z0 --- NEAR 11.4N6 126.9E8 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 20 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.4N6 126.9E8 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z8 --- 11.4N6 123.2E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z1 --- 11.5N7 120.0E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z9 --- 11.4N6 117.2E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z2 --- 11.1N3 114.6E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z3 --- 10.5N6 109.4E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z5 --- 10.0N1 105.1E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z6 --- 10.2N3 102.8E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT --- REMARKS: 161500Z3 POSITION NEAR 11.4N6 126.0E9. TYPHOON (TY) 02W (ROKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, IS TRACKING WESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z0 IS 16 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 PGTW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z0, 170300Z1, 170900Z7 AND 171500Z4.//