WTPN31 PGTW 151500 NAVOCEANO STENNIS SPACE CENTER MS//N16// MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (ROKE) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 151200Z9 --- NEAR 12.1N4 134.5E3 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.1N4 134.5E3 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z7 --- 11.8N0 130.9E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z0 --- 11.5N7 127.3E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z8 --- 11.5N7 123.9E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 16 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z1 --- 11.9N1 120.6E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z2 --- 12.1N4 115.4E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 15 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z3 --- 10.5N6 109.4E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z5 --- 9.8N7 104.6E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT --- REMARKS: 151500Z2 POSITION NEAR 12.0N3 133.6E3. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W (ROKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM NORTH OF PALAU, IS TRACKING WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS. REFER TO WWPW31 PGTW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z9, 160300Z0, 160900Z6 AND 161500Z3.//