WTPN31 PGTW 141500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 02W WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 141200Z8 --- NEAR 10.4N5 140.0E5 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.4N5 140.0E5 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z6 --- 10.9N0 136.9E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z9 --- 11.0N2 133.7E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z7 --- 10.7N8 130.2E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 19 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z0 --- 10.3N4 126.4E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z1 --- 9.6N5 120.5E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 16 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z2 --- 8.3N1 114.1E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z3 --- 6.4N0 107.3E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT --- REMARKS: 141500Z1 POSITION NEAR 10.5N6 139.2E5. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF YAP, IS TRACKING WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS. A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS CONFIRMS THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS RESIDE IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANTS WITH AN UNFLAGGED 40 KNOT WIND VERIFYING THE CURRENT INTENSITY. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z8, 150300Z9, 150900Z5 AND 151500Z2.// NNNN