WDPN31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 01W (KULAP)
/WARNING NR 12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 161200Z0 TO 181200Z2 JAN 2005.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 01W (KULAP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
130 NM EAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 161130Z2
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS
FROM ALL AGENCIES. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED TO THE EAST OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION.
   B. TS 01W IS TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERI-
PHERY OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE
EAST. TS 01W IS FORECAST TO CREST THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS
BY TAU 12 AND THEN RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST AND INTERACT WITH
THE APPROACHING BAROCLINIC ZONE. TS 01W IS FORECAST TO TRANS-
ITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PER-
IOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN,
COAMPS, NCEP GFS, UKMET, JGSM, JTYM, TCLAPS, TXLAPS AND WBAR
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. NCEP GFS IS
THE EASTWARD OUTLIER, FORECASTING AN EARLIER RECURVATURE THAN
THE OTHER MODELS. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON NCEP GFS.
   C. TS 01W IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AFTER CRESTING THE
RIDGE AXIS DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND INTERACTION WITH THE
APPROACHING BAROCLINIC ZONE.
   D. CURRENT AND FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY
FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST TEAM: BRAVO//

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