WDPN31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 31W WARNING NR 27//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 1612000Z0 TO 191200Z3 DEC 2004.
   A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 31W (TALAS) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650
NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 161130Z2
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS.
   B. DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD TD 31W WILL BEGIN TO TRACK POLEWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE
ANCHORED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF
COAMPS, JGSM, NOGAPS, WBAR, AVN, AND UKMI ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT. THE
MODELS ALL INDICATE A RECURVATURE SOLUTION BUT ARE IN DISAGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAIL-
ABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
   C. THE INTENSITY OF TD 31W IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY AND BEGIN
TO WEAKEN AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WHEN IT ENTERS AN AREA OF
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
   D. INITIAL AND FORECAST POSITIONS FOR TD 31W DO NOT MEET WIND
RADII CRITERIA.
3. FORECAST TEAM: PITTS/KLINZMANN/SPANSKI/FUNK//
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