WTPN31 PGTW 101500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 31W WARNING NR 003 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 31W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 101200Z4 --- NEAR 8.5N3 168.2E7 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 8.5N3 168.2E7 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z2 --- 8.9N7 164.2E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 20 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z5 --- 9.5N4 160.2E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 20 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z3 --- 10.1N2 156.2E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 19 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z6 --- 10.7N8 152.3E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z7 --- 12.7N0 145.0E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 13 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z8 --- 16.2N9 141.2E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z9 --- 19.4N4 139.0E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT --- REMARKS: 101500Z7 POSITION NEAR 8.6N4 167.2E6. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 31W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 30 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN ATOLL, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 101130Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 and 35 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z4 IS 11 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z4, 110300Z5, 110900Z1 AND 111500Z8.//