WDPN31 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 29W WARNING NR 25//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 200000Z2 TO 241200Z9 NOV 2004.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 29W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARN-
ING POSITION IS BASED ON 192330Z8 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45, 77, AND 90 KNOTS, AND ADJUSTED
FOR DECREASING DVORAK FINAL-T NUMBERS.
   B. TY 29W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD EARLY IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE NORTHWEST, AND THEN WESTWARD
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DY-
NAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, COAMPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, AFWA
MM5, JGSM, JTYM, TCLAPS, UKMET, AND WBAR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
   C. TY 29W IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE. INTENSITY IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY DUE TO IMPROVED OUTFLOW AS THE
SYSTEM ENTERS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, THOUGH DRY AIR INTRUSION
FROM THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
AFFECT THE SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD.
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS.
FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE
SIZED SYSTEM AND STORM MOVEMENT.
   E. TY 29W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE AND IS FORECAST TO
MAKE LANDFALL IN VIETNAM BETWEEN TAUS 72 AND 96. TY 29W IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER 48 HOURS DUE TO LAND INTERACTION,
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND DRY AIR INTRUSION.
3. FORECAST TEAM: BOWER/MENEBROKER/HEILER//
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