WDPN31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 29W
/WARNING NR 15//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 171200Z1 TO 221200Z7 NOV 2004.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 29W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
170 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD IN A QUASI-STATIONARY LOOP AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 171130Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MULTIPLE RECENT
MICROWAVE SATELLITE PASSES REVEAL THAT THE SYSTEM IS NOW
TRACKING VERY SLOWLY TO THE NORTH AS IT MAKES A QUASI-STATIONARY
LOOP IN TRACK. MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS THE
PRESENCE OF A BANDING EYE FEATURE. 
   B. TY 29W IS FORECAST TO TRACK VERY SLOWLY, LOOPING BACK TO
A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK BY THE END OF THE EARLY PERIOD. TY 29W
REMAINS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE LOW TO MID-
LEVEL RIDGES TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM.
DURING THE MID-PERIOD, THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL
BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE, CAUSING THE TRACK TO TURN
MORE EQUATORWARD AND INCREASE IN TRACK SPEED UNTIL THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WHEN THE TRACK BECOMES MORE WESTWARD. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, COAMPS, GFDN,
NCEP GFS, AFWA MM5, UKMET, JGSM, JTYM AND TLAPS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO, THOUGH ONLY JTYM FULLY REFLECTS
THE CURRENT SLOW LOOP IN TRACK. WBAR AND TCLAPS INDICATE A MORE
POLEWARD TRACK IN THE EARLY PERIOD, WITH A WESTWARD TURN IN THE
MID-PERIOD. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAIL-
ABLE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH THE ADDITION OF THE SLOW LOOP IN THE EARLY
PERIOD AND LESS EMPHASIS ON THE POLEWARD TURN OF TCLAPS AND WBAR.
   C. TY 29W IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. INTERACTION WITH LAND IS FORECAST
TO HALT INTENSIFICATION AND DECREASE INTENSITY IN THE MID-PERIOD.
THE INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SLOWLY DUE TO ENHANCED
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AFTER TY 29W TRACKS OVER OPEN WATER LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD. 
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS AND
MICRWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON
CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM AND STORM MOVEMENT.
   E. DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TY 29W IS FORECAST TO TRACK
WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STEERING RIDGE CURRENTLY BUILDING
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. ONLY MODERATE INTENSIFICATION IS
FORECAST LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS A MARGINAL UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH LIMITED POLEWARD OUTFLOW POTENTIAL AND DRY
AIR INTRUSION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
3. FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/KLINZMANN/SCHULTZ//