WDPN31 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 29W
/WARNING NR 09//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 160000Z7 TO 210000Z3 NOV 2004.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 29W (MUIFA), HAS BEEN RELOCATED 50
NM NORTHEAST OF THE 151800Z5 NOV 04 WARNING POSITION, APPROX-
IMATELY 300 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. TS 29W HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 152330Z4 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35, 45 AND 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY NOW CLEARLY REVEALS THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH IS EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE DEEP CON-
VECTION. A 152133Z5 QUIKSCAT IMAGE SUPPORTS THIS RELOCATED
POSITION.
   B. TS 29W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED TO THE EAST FOR
THE NEXT 12 HOURS, AND THEN WESTWARD IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRON-
MENT. AFTER 24 HOURS, TS 29W IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING SOUTH-
WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED
TO THE WEST OVER CHINA. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, COAMPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, AFWA MM5, UKMET, JGSM, JTYM,
TLAPS, AND WBAR ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. WBAR,
THE POLEWARD OUTLIER, TRACKS THE SYSTEM AROUND THE WESTERN PERI-
PHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED TO THE EAST. GFDN FORECASTS
THE SYSTEM TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY PRIOR TO REACHING SOUTHERN
LUZON. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON WBAR AND GFDN.
   C. TS 29W IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. INTENSIFICATION
IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS TS
29W APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH THE TERRAIN OF THE PHILIPPINES.
   D. CURRENT AND FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY
FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM.
   E. DURING THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 29W IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ANCHORED TO THE WEST OF TS 29W BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING
MECHANISM. WEAK INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA DUE TO WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
INTENSIFICATION WILL BE HINDERED BY INTRUSION OF DRY, COLD AIR
ADVECTING OFF CHINA AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
3. FORECAST TEAM: BOWER/MENEBROKER/HEILER//
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