WDPN32 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 28W
/WARNING NR 39//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 230600Z1 TO 280600Z6 OCT 2004.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 28W (NOCK-TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 470
NM SOUTH OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 231130Z0 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 AND
115 KNOTS. TY 28W HAS DISPLAYED A WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS.
   B. TY 28W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTH-
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE TRACK IS FORECAST TO TURN POLEWARD AFTER TAU 24
AS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STEERING RIDGE RETREATS EASTWARD
AND THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, COAMPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, JGSM,
JTYM, UKMET, AFWA MM5, TCLAPS AND WBAR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. 
   C. THE INTENSITY OF TY 28W IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DECREASE AS
THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS DRY AIR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
AFTER 36 HOURS INTERACTION WITH THE TERRAIN OF TAIWAN AND THE
MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL ALSO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. 
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON 230902Z6 SSM/I MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY
FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM.
   E. THE EXTENDED FORECAST CALLS FOR TY 28W TO RECURVE TO THE
NORTHEAST AND UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SOUTH OF JAPAN.
NOGAPS, AND GFDN INDICATE A DECOUPLING OF THE LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) FROM THE REMAINDER OF THE SYSTEM AS IT
IS ABSORBED INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. NOGAPS AND GFDN FORECAST THE
EXPOSED LLCC TO TRACK SOUTHWEST AFTER BECOMING DECOUPLED FROM THE
REMAINING STRUCTURE OF THE STORM. UPPER LEVEL FIELDS CONSISTENT
WITH THE FORECAST STEERING LEVEL, HOWEVER, INDICATE THE STORM IS
ABSORBED INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD. THE
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE
AIDS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON NOGAPS AND GFDN. THE INTENSITY OF TY
28W IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY DECREASE AFTER TAU 72 AS THE SYSTEM
ENCOUNTERS HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-
LATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. 
3.FORECAST TEAM: DIXON/FJELD/VOHS//

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