WDPN32 PGTW 230300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 28W /WARNING NR 37// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 230000Z5 TO 280000Z0 OCT 2004. A. TYPHOON (TY) 28W (NOCK-TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 600 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 222330Z2 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 AND 115 KNOTS. B. TY 28W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE TRACK IS FORECAST TO TURN POLEWARD AFTER TAU 36 AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD AND THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, COAMPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, JGSM, JTYM, UKMET, AFWA MM5, TCLAPS AND WBAR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. C. THE INTENSITY OF TY 28W IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DECREASE AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS DRY AIR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AFTER 48 HOURS INTERACTION WITH TERRAIN AND THE MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL ALSO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. THE RATE OF INTE- NSITY DECREASE WILL BE SLOWED AS THE SYSTEM CRESTS THE RIDGE AXIS AND ENCOUNTERS AN ENVIRONMENT OF DECREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AT 48 HOURS. D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON 222232Z3 SSM/I MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM. E. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY 28W IS FORECAST TO RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST AND UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT TRACKS SOUTH OF JAPAN. THE INTENSITY OF TY 28W IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY DECREASE AFTER TAU 72 AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPER- ATURES. NCEP GFS AND GFDN FORECAST A WEAKENED STEERING ENVIRONMENT, AND INTENSIFICATION OF AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE WEST, RESULTING IN A SOUTHWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 72. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON GFDN AND NCEP GFS. 3.FORECAST TEAM: BOWER/MENEBROKER/SCHULTZ/JAYKOSKI// NNNN