WDPN32 PGTW 220300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 28W /WARNING NR 33// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 220000Z4 TO 270000Z9 OCT 2004. A. TYPHOON (TY) 28W (NOCK-TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 820 NM SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 212330Z1 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 102 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEAL A BAND- ING EYE AND AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. B. TY 28W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST CONTROLS THE STEERING FLOW. BY TAU 60 TO TAU 72, THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO REORIENT AS A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH (MSWT) APPROACHES KOREA AND JAPAN. A WEAKNESS IN THE OVERALL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING MSWT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF TCLAPS, JGSM, JTYM, COAMPS, GFDN, UKMO, WBAR, MM5, AND NOGAPS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE TCLAPS MODEL. TCLAPS RESOLVES A SOLUTION WHICH TAKES THE SYSTEM EQUATORWARD AFTER APPROXIMATELY TAU 42. NOGAPS, UKMO, AND WBAR RESOLVE A RECURVATURE SOLUTION WHILE COAMPS, JTYM, AND JGSM DEPICT A STRAIGHT TRACK BETWEEN TAIWAN AND LUZON. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON TCLAPS. C. THE INTENSITY OF TY 28W SHOULD PEAK SLIGHTLY WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE DEEP CONVECTION INCREASES AND BECOMES MORE SYMMETRIC AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. AFTER TAU 12, A GRADUAL DECREASE IN STORM STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DUE TO COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. ADDITIONALLY, INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE MSWT WILL PROHIBIT INTENSIFICATION, ESPECIALLY IN THE LATER TAUS. D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 212041Z0 QUIKSCAT PASS. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM. E. DURING THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY 28W WILL TRACK TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AXIS WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA. THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN AS TY 28W MOVES INTO A WEAKER STEERING FLOW. ADDITIONALLY, THE INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE TO ENHANCED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND CONTINUED PASSAGE OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. 3.FORECAST TEAM: LEFFLER/CHRISTIAN/LEWIN// NNNN