WDPN32 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 28W
/WARNING NR 15//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 171200Z1 TO 221200Z7 OCT 2004.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 28W (NOCK-TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
510 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 171130Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
45, 55 AND 65 KNOTS. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WHILE THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SPIRAL BANDING
FEATURE TO THE NORTH HAS DIMINISHED.
   B. TS 28W IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN A MOSTLY WESTWARD TRACK
FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE TRACK OF TS 28W
WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTWARD IN 36 TO 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE PERIPHERAL RIDGE TO THE WEST.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF TCLAPS, COAMPS,
MM5, AVN, GFDN, UKMO, NOGAPS, JGSM, JTYM, AND WBAR ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO WITH NO SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
   C. TS 28W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY BUT AT LESS
THAN A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
NONETHELESS, TS 28W SHOULD INTENSIFY TO TYPHOON STRENGTH IN
APPROXIMATELY 12 TO 24 HOURS. 
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 170800Z6 QUIKSCAT PASS.
FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED
SYSTEM.
   E. THE EXTENDED FORECAST CALLS FOR TS 28W TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST AND CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY.
FORECAST TEAM: GRUBER/KLINZMANN/HEILER//
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