WDPN32 PGTW 150300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W /WARNING NR 05// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 150000Z6 TO 180000Z9 OCT 2004. A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 28W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM NORTH OF POHNPEI, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 142330Z3 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE POORLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH- WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. B. TD 28W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE NORTH. AFTER 36 HOURS A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH ALLOWING TD 28W TO TURN POLEWARD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, COAMPS, UKMET, NCEP GFS, AND GFDN ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. C. TD 28W IS TRACKING IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING TO THE WEST MAY HINDER INTENSIFICATION. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A SLIGHTLY LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 141839Z6 QUIKSCAT PASS AND FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM. FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/BOWER/HEATH/VOHS// NNNN