WDPN31 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 27W
/WARNING NR 27//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 190000Z0 TO 220000Z4 OCT 2004.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 27W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 12 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 
182330Z7 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90 KNOTS. 
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION
HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OVER THE LAST
06 HOURS.
   B. TY 27W IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE 
WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. TY 27W IS
FORECAST TO BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COMPLETE 
TRANSITION TO BAROCLINIC LOW TAU 48. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS 
CONSISTING OF UKMET, COAMPS, JTYM, WBAR, JGSM, MM5, TCLAPS, GFDN,
NOGAPS, AND AVN ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BUT CONTINUE TO TRACK THE
SYSTEM ALONG THE JAPANESE ALPS. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE
CONSENSUS WITH AN EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT TO ACCOUNT FOR TERRAIN
INTERACTION AND ORIENTATION OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH.
   C. TY 27W WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT TRACKS 
INTO COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, ADVECTS DRIER AIR INTO THE 
SYSTEM AND ENCOUNTERS A HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON MICROWAVE AND SYNOPTIC DATA.
FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR A LARGE SYSTEM 
UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
FORECAST TEAM: KENDALL/MENEBROKER/TINOCO/FUNK/JAYKOSKI//
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