WDPN31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 27W
/WARNING NR 11//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 150000Z5 TO 200000Z2 OCT 2004.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 27W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 810 NM
SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
142330Z3 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 102
KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AN EYE HAS
DEVELOPED, BUT IT IS NOT YET APPARENT IN MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY.
   B. TY 27W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LATITUDE STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED
TO THE NORTHEAST. TY 27W IS FORECAST TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AFTER 48 HOURS AS A RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST BUILDS AND BECOMES
THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, COAMPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, AFWA MM5, UKMET,
JGSM, JTYM AND TCLAPS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT. AFWA MM5 AND JTYM
ARE THE POLEWARD OUTLIERS, TRACKING THE SYSTEM DIRECTLY TOWARD
A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. UKMET, NOGAPS, COAMPS,
AND GFDN MAINTAIN A WESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS
WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON AFWA MM5. AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO THAT
CONTINUES THE POLEWARD TRACK OF TY 27W AFTER 48 HOURS IS POSSIBLE.
   C. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW
AND WEAK LINKAGE WITH THE TROUGH EXITING ASIA. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE INTENSIFICATION
RATE AFTER THAT WILL SLOW AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR TO
THE WEST AND INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 142022Z1 QUIKSCAT PASS.
FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR A LARGE SIZED
SYSTEM.
   E. CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS POOR AS A RESULT OF 
DISAGREEMENT IN THE NUMERICAL MODELS. SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT
DEPICTIONS OF THE MID-LATITUDE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT PRODUCE VARYING
TRACKS FOR TY 27W, HOWEVER, A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS
FORECAST WITH THE BUILDING OF A STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST.
THIS FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, WITH LESS
EMPHASIS ON AFWA MM5.
FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/BOWER/HEATH/VOHS//

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