WTPN31 PGTW 130300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 27W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 130000Z4 --- NEAR 14.2N7 143.8E6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.2N7 143.8E6 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z7 --- 14.9N4 140.6E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z5 --- 16.1N8 137.7E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z8 --- 17.7N5 135.3E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z6 --- 19.5N5 133.7E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z7 --- 21.3N6 132.3E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z8 --- 23.0N5 131.5E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z9 --- 24.7N3 130.9E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT --- REMARKS: 130300Z7 POSITION NEAR 14.4N9 143.0E8. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 27W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 80 NM NORTHWEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 122330Z1 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS TS 27W CONTINUES TO HAVE A STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS STILL DEVELOPING. A 122219Z7 TRMM PASS SHOWS A DISTINCT EYE, AND THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS SITUATED IN THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z4 IS 16 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z3, 131500Z0, 132100Z7 AND 140300Z8.//