WDPN31 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 26W
/WARNING NR 17//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 080000Z8 TO 120000Z3 OCT 2004.
   A. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 26W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250
NM SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
072330Z5 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 140 AND
155 KNOTS.
   B. STY 26W IS TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TURN
NORTHWARD AS THE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE EAST COAST OF CHINA
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND BECOME VERTICALLY ORIENTED WHICH WILL ALLOW
THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE EASTERN RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE.
ONCE STY 26W BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, BETWEEN TAUS 12
AND 24, IT WILL RAPIDLY TRACK POLEWARD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, COAMPS, GFDN, JGSM, JTYM, UKMET EGRR, AND
TCLAPS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF JTYM WHICH IS AN EASTERN OUTLIER. THE ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS FOR
THE TROUGH TO REMAIN ORIENTED NORTHEAST WHICH WOULD SET UP FOR
AN EAST COAST PASSAGE OVER JAPAN. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON JTYM.
   C. STY 26W HAS A WELL ESTABLISHED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL BEING
FURTHER ENHANCED BY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER EASTERN CHINA.
THIS IS ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT HAS GOOD
VENTILATION. STY 26W WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN QUICKLY AS IT ENCOUNTERS
AN AREA OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY. FORECAST
WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST TEAM: PITTS/KLINZMANN/HEILER//