WDPN31 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W
/WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 200000Z2 TO 230000Z5 SEP 2004.
    A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 25W, LOCATED APPROX-
IMATELY 35 NM SOUTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 192330Z8 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. 
   B. TD 25W IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE. AN APPROACHING
TROUGH TRACKING EASTWARD OVER CHINA WILL CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE
STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL FACILITATE
A MORE POLEWARD TRACK AFTER THE EARLY PERIOD. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET EGRR, JGSM, NCEP GFS AND WBAR ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. 
   C. TD 25W HAS POTENTIAL FOR SOMEWHAT ENHANCED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IN THE
EARLY PERIOD. COUNTERING THIS IS DRY AIR AFFECTING THE SYSTEM FROM
THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALL AIDS INDICATE
INTENSIFICATION AT A SLIGHTLY LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, WHICH THIS FORECAST REFLECTS.
   D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR A LESS THAN
AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM. 
3. FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/FIORINO/JACOBS/CHRISTIAN/LEWIN//

NNNN