WTPN31 PGTW 221500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 25W (MEARI) WARNING NR 011 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 25W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 221200Z7 --- NEAR 16.1N8 138.6E8 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.1N8 138.6E8 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z5 --- 17.5N3 137.3E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z8 --- 18.6N5 135.7E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z6 --- 19.7N7 133.8E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z9 --- 21.0N3 131.8E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z0 --- 23.0N5 127.7E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z1 --- 24.6N2 123.1E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z2 --- 25.6N3 120.3E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT --- REMARKS: 221500Z0 POSITION NEAR 16.4N1 138.3E5. TYPHOON (TY) 25W (MEARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 221130Z9 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CONVECTION HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS, AND THE 220933Z9 TRMM IMAGE SHOWS THAT A BANDING EYE HAS DEVELOPED. THE 220847Z3 QUIKSCAT IMAGE INDICATES SIGNIFICANT ASYMMETRY IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z7 IS 17 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z7, 230300Z8, 230900Z4 AND 231500Z1.// NNNN