WDPN31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 23W
/WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 050000Z5 TO 100000Z1 SEP 2004.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W (SARIKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215
NM NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 042330Z2
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS.
CURRENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ORGANIZED
CONVECTION OVER A POSSIBLE BANDED EYE. 
   B. TS 23W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
NORTH. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS OF JGSM, JTYM, UKMET EGRR, NOGAPS,
NCEP GFS, AND WBAR ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. NGPS IS THE
EQUATORWARD OUTLIER WITH A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. THIS FORECAST IS
BASED ON THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. 
   C. TS 23W IS FORECAST TO INITIALLY INTENSIFY AT GREATER THAN A
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE SYSTEM IS BEING
PROVIDED AN EASTERN OUTFLOW CHANNEL DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AND IS ALSO EXPERIENCING DECENT
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII AND FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON
CLIMATOLOGY FOR A NEW SYSTEM AND A RECENT AMSU-B SATELLITE PASS.
   E. THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK FOR TS 23W IS TO CONTINUE TRACKING 
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE. TS 23w WILL SLOW DOWN IN INTENSIFICATION AS IT
LOSES LINKAGE WITH THE EASTERN UPPER LEVEL LOW. HOWEVER, AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM
MOVES FURTHER AWAY IT COULD PROVIDE ANOTHER OUTFLOW CHANNEL.
3. FORECAST TEAM: PITTS/KLINZMANN/HEILER//