WTPN31 PGTW 050300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (SARIKA) WARNING NR 002 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 050000Z5 --- NEAR 17.1N9 148.7E0 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.1N9 148.7E0 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z8 --- 17.9N7 146.5E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z6 --- 18.7N6 144.1E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z9 --- 19.3N3 142.3E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z7 --- 19.7N7 141.2E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z8 --- 20.3N5 139.3E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z9 --- 20.5N7 137.3E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z1 --- 20.8N0 134.8E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT --- REMARKS: 050300Z8 POSITION NEAR 17.3N1 148.2E5. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W (SARIKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 042330Z2 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. CURRENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER A POSSIBLE BANDED EYE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z5 IS 11 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z4, 051500Z1, 052100Z8 AND 060300Z9. REFER TO TYPHOON 22W (SONGDA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//