WDPN33 PGTW 051500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W WARNING NR 37// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 051200Z8 TO 101200Z4 SEP 2004. A. TYPHOON (TY) 22W (SONGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 26 NM NORTH OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 051130Z0 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90, 102, AND 115 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS THE EYE HAS BECOME COVERED AND IS BEGINNING TO FILL. B. TY 22W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST. WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TY 22W WILL BEGIN A POLEWARD TURN AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS AND REORIENTS TO THE NORTH. THIS RECURVATURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER THIS TIME, AN APPROACHING MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO ACCELERATE ALONG A NORTHEAST TRACK ACROSS THE SEA OF JAPAN. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF COAMPS, JGSM, NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET EGRR, JTYM, AND WBAR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK UNTIL TAU 72. COAMPS AND AFWA MM5 DID NOT AGREE WELL WITH THE CONSENSUS AND LESS EMPHASIS IS PLACED ON THESE TWO MODELS. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. C. THE INTENSITY OF TY 22W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SLOWLY AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS. AFTER TAU 48, INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN TY 22W SUBTANTIALLY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN AT TYPHOON STRENGTH UNTIL IT BEGINS AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED IN PART ON RECENT QUIKSCAT DATA. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE TO LARGE SIZED SYSTEM. E. TY 22W IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AFTER TAU 72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BY TAU 96, IT SHOULD APPROACH MIDLATITUDES AND BEGIN TO RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE. 3. FORECAST TEAM: MOHAMMED/LEFFLER/HEATH/LEWIN// NNNN