WDPN33 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W WARNING NR 35//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 050000Z5 TO 100000Z1 SEP 2004.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 22W (SONGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 80 NM SOUTH-
EAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 042330Z2
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 AND 127 KNOTS.
   B. TY 22W CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE
TRACK IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS BEFORE TURNING POLEWARD IN RESPONSE TO A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN CREATING A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE PRIMARY
STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE OVER EASTERN CHINA BUILDING
EASTWARD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF JGSM, JTYM, UKMET
EGRR, GFDN, NCEP GFS, AFWA MM5, COAMPS, NOGAPS, AND WBAR ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON UKMET EGRR.
   C. TY 22W IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE
ISLAND OF OKINAWA AND BEGINS TO RECURVE POLEWARD. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD 
OUTFLOW CHANNEL WHICH COULD CAUSE TY 22W TO MAINTAIN CURRENT INTENSITY
FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED IN PART ON RECENT QUIKSCAT DATA.
FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE TO LARGE
SIZED SYSTEM.
   E. THE EXTENDED FORECAST CALLS FOR TY 22W TO LINK UP WITH A MAJOR
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE SEA OF JAPAN AND COMPLETE TRANSITION TO AN
EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
3. FORECAST TEAM: PITTS/KLINZMANN/HEILER//
NNNN