WDPN33 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W WARNING NR 29//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 031200Z6 TO 081200Z1 SEP 2004.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 22W (SONGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD 
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 031130Z8 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY 
ESTIMATES OF 102 AND 115 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE AND ENHANCED
INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATE THAT TY 22W HAS INTENSIFIED OVER 
THE LAST 06 HOURS.
   B. TY 22W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AS IT BUILDS
WESTWARD THROUGH THE MID-PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS
CONSISTING OF JGSM, JTYM, UKMET EGRR, GFDN, AFWA MM5, COAMPS,
NOGAPS, AFWA MM5 AND WBAR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU
72. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE 
DYNAMIC AIDS.
   C. TY 22W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES
THE HIGHER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT CREATED BY ITS PROXIMITY TO THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE
NORTH AND AN AREA OF LOWER MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
EAST CHINA SEA.
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED IN PART ON RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN 
AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM.
   E. THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRACKS TY 22W POLEWARD TOWARDS A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS AS A RESULT
OF A PASSING LONGWAVE TROUGH. INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
WEAKENING SLOWLY BEFORE THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL IN CHINA AND
WEAKENS MORE RAPIDLY.
3. FORECAST TEAM: KENDALL/FJELD/VOHS//

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