WDPN33 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W WARNING NR 25//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 021200Z5 TO 071200Z0 SEP 2004.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 22W (SONGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235
NM SOUTHWEST OF IWO JIMA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 021130Z7 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 102 AND 115 KNOTS. OVERALL ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED OVER
THE LAST 06 HOURS BUT CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED 
SLIGHTLY.
   B. TY 22W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWEST-
WARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AS
IT BUILDS WESTWARD THROUGH THE MID-PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS CONSISTING OF JGSM, JTYM, UKMET EGRR, GFDN, AFWA MM5, TCLAPS,
COAMPS, NOGAPS, AFWA MM5 AND WBAR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
TAU 72. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS.
   C. TY 22W IS EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY IN THE EARLY 
PERIOD AS A PASSING LONGWAVE TROUGH ENHANCES POLEWARD OUTFLOW. 
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN IN THE MID-PERIOD AS
IT ENTERS AN AREA OF LOWER 500 MB TO 300 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY 
COUPLED WITH WEAKER UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW.
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED IN PART ON RECENT MICROWAVE
DATA. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE
TO LARGE SIZED SYSTEM.
   E. THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRACKS TY 22W POLEWARD TOWARDS A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS AS A RESULT OF
A PASSING LONGWAVE TROUGH. INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
WEAKENING SLOWLY BEFORE THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL IN CHINA AND
WEAKENS MORE RAPIDLY.
3. FORECAST TEAM: KENDALL/FJELD/VOHS//

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