WDPN33 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W
/WARNING NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 280000Z0 AUG TO 020000Z2 SEP 2004.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (SONGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
270 NM EAST OF ENIWETUK, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 272330Z7
MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 35 KNOTS.
   B. TS 22W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE
LOCATED TO THE NORTH. THE LIMITED AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS OF
NGPS, WBAR AND UKMET EGGR ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LIMITED
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. 
   C. TS 22W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
OF WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW IN THE EQUATORWARD
DIRECTION. DUE TO AN EXPECTED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT REINFORCED
BY INTENSITY STATISTICAL GUIDANCE, TS 22W IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE BRINGING IT TO TYPHOON
STRENGTH BY MID PERIOD OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII AND FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON
CLIMATOLOGY FOR AVERAGE SIZE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST TEAM: PITTS/MENEBROKER/FUNK//
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