WTPN33 PGTW 021500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 22W (SONGDA) WARNING NR 025 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 021200Z5 --- NEAR 21.9N2 138.4E6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.9N2 138.4E6 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z3 --- 22.3N7 135.9E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z6 --- 22.6N0 133.6E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z4 --- 22.6N0 131.5E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z7 --- 22.6N0 129.2E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z8 --- 23.3N8 125.7E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z9 --- 24.9N5 122.1E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z0 --- 27.0N9 119.1E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT --- REMARKS: 021500Z8 POSITION NEAR 22.0N4 137.8E9. TYPHOON (TY) 22W (SONGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM SOUTHWEST OF IWO JIMA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 021130Z7 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 AND 115 KNOTS. OVERALL ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED OVER THE LAST 06 HOURS BUT CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED SLIGHTLY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z5 IS 40 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z5, 030300Z6, 030900Z2 AND 031500Z9.// NNNN