WDPN32 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 19W
/WARNING NR 44//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 2912000Z4 AUG TO 311200Z7 SEP 2004.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM
SOUTH OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 
291130Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 102
KNOTS.
   B. TY 19W IS FORECAST TO TRACK POLEWARD AND ACCELERATE IN 
RESPONSE TO A LONGWAVE TROUGH ENTERING THE SEA OF JAPAN.
INTERATION WITH THIS TROUGH WILL TRANSITION TY 19W INTO A BARO-
CLINIC SYSTEM BY TAU 48. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF
UKMET EGRR, NCEP GFS, NOGAPS, COAMPS, GFDN, JGSM, JTYM, AFWA MM5,
AND WBAR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST
IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
   C. TY 19W IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN EARLY IN THE FORECAST 
PERIOD AS RADIAL OUTFLOW DIMINISHES, AND THE SYSTEM APPROACHES LAND.
FURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER TAU 24 AS TY 19W INTERACTS WITH
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON QUIKSCAT. FORECAST WIND RADII
ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR A LARGE SIZED SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST TEAM: KENDALL/FJELD/VOHS//

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