WDPN32 PGTW 250300 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 19W
/WARNING NR 26 CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 250000Z7 TO 300000Z3 AUG 2004.
   A. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 19W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM
SOUTHWEST OF IWO JIMA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 242330Z4 MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
155 KNOTS.
   B. STY 19W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE NORTHEAST.
A MORE POLEWARD TRACK RESULTS AFTER THE MID-PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE SEA OF JAPAN WEAKENS THE STEERING RIDGE. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF UKMET EGRR, JGSM, JTYM, NOGAPS, COAMPS, NCEP
GFS, GFDN, TCLAPS, AFWA MM5 AND WBAR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS. SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE IN THE MODEL
FORECASTS EXISTS AFTER THE MID-PERIOD, WITH AFWA MM5 REPRESENTING THE
EASTWARD OUTLIER, WHICH SHOWS RECURVATURE BEGINNING EARLY IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD, AND JGSM AND NCEP GFS REPRESENTING THE WESTERN OUTLIERS, WHICH
SHOW PERSISTENT TRACKING TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
AFTER 72 HOURS IS LOW AS A RESULT OF THE DEVIATION OF DYNAMIC AIDS. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
   C. STY 19W CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, WITH AN EASTERN
CHANNEL ESTABLISHED DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A TUTT CELL LOCATED NORTHEAST.
INTENSITY HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN AS THE INTERACTION WITH THE TUTT CELL IS DISESTABLISHED.  
   D. CURRENT WIND AND FORECASTED WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY
FOR A LARGE SIZED SYSTEM.
   E. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST THE TRACK OF STY 19W IS NORTHWARD BEFORE
BEGINNING TO TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A REINTENSIFICATION
OF THE STEERING RIDGE. STY 19W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO A
LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED VALID TIMES IN PARA 2. ALSO
CORRECTED THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK DIRECTION IN PARA 2.E.
4. FORECAST TEAM: PITTS/MENEBROKER/FUNK/SCHULTZ//

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