WDPN32 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 19W
/WARNING NR 16//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 221200Z7 TO 271200Z2 AUG 2004.
    A. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 55 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 221130Z9 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 125 KNOTS
BY ALL FIXING AGENCIES. A RECENT 221209Z6 SYNOPTIC OBSERVATION
AT SAIPAN REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 49 KNOTS GUSTING TO
61 KNOTS.
    B. TY 19W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
SITUATED TO THE NORTH. THIS RIDGE CONTINUES TO DISPLACE TY 19W
FURTHER WESTWARD THAN WHAT THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING. TY 19W WILL PASS THE MARIANAS AND BEGIN TRACKING
POLEWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE TO
THE NORTHEAST, CRESTING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS BY THE 72 HOUR
TAU. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF UKMET EGRR, JGSM,
JTYM, NOGAPS, COAMPS, NCEP GFS, GFDN, TCLAPS, AND WBAR ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, HOWEVER, THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO
BE ADJUSTED TO THE WEST AND EQUATORWARD OF THE CONSENSUS DUE TO
PERSISTENCE.
    C. TY 19W CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCING GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
BALANCED BY MODERATE WIND SHEAR FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SO TY 19W IS EXPECTED INTENSIFY TO
SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH. 
    D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A RECENT 220849Z5 QUIKSCAT
PASS. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR A LARGE
SIZED SYSTEM.
    E.  THE EXTENDED FORECAST EXPECTS TY 19W TO CREST THE RIDGE
AXIS, RECURVE AND ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN AS IT 
ENCOUNTERS INCREASED VERTICAL SHEAR FROM THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES.
3. FORECAST TEAM: GRUBER/KLINZMANN/HEILER//