WTPN32 PGTW 190900 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 19W WARNING NR 003 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 190600Z6 --- NEAR 12.9N2 161.4E2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.9N2 161.4E2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z9 --- 13.5N9 159.7E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z8 --- 13.7N1 158.1E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z1 --- 13.7N1 156.3E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z9 --- 13.6N0 154.3E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z0 --- 14.0N5 149.6E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z1 --- 16.1N8 146.3E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z2 --- 19.3N3 143.9E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT --- REMARKS: 190900Z9 POSITION NEAR 13.1N5 161.0E8. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 975 NM EAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 190530Z8 MULTI- SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30, 35 AND 45 KNOTS. THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS RESULTING FROM GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND AN OUTFLOW LINKAGE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVEHEIGHT AT 190600Z6 IS 12 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z6, 192100Z3, 200300Z5 AND 200900Z1. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18W (MEGI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN