WDPN31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W
/WARNING NR 05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 150000Z6 TO 180000Z9 AUG 2004.
    A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 18W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 685 NM
SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 18
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
142330Z3 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. 
    B. TD 18W IS TAKING A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS THE
STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST STRENGTHENS AND BUILDS WESTWARD. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS 18W CONTAINS MORE
CHARACTERISTICS OF A MONSOON DEPRESSION AND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. AN ALTERNATE
SCENARIO IS FOR TD 18W TO FAIL TO CONSOLIDATE AND BE FINALED SOONER
THAN FORECAST. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS,
JGSM, NCEP GFS AND JTYM ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. UKMET IS A POLEWARD
OUTLIER AS THE RIDGE TO THE EAST DOES NOT STRENGTHEN AND BUILD
WESTWARD AS INDICATED IN THE OTHER MODELS. THIS FORECAST IS BASED
ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON
UKMET. 
   C. TD 18W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IF THE SYSTEM DOES
CONSOLIDATE. THE SYSTEM SHOWS MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND COULD
INTENSIFY MORE RAPIDLY IF IT LINKS UP WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW
LOCATED TO THE NORTH. 18W IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. 
   D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE
SIZED SYSTEM.   
3. FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/PITTS/FJELD/VOHS//

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