WDPN32 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 16W (RANANIM)
/WARNING NR 18//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 120000Z3 TO 131200Z7 AUG 2004.
  A. TYPHOON (TY) 16W (RANANIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
NORTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
112330Z0 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90
KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT TY 16W HAS INTENSIFIED
SLIGHTLY IN THE WARM COASTAL WATERS OFF CHINA.
   B. TY 16W CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. 
LANDFALL IS FORECAST SOUTH OF SHANGHAI, CHINA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET EGRR, JGSM,
NCEP GFS, GFDN, JTYM, AFWA MM5, COAMPS, AND WBAR ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CON-
SENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
   C. DRY AIR INTRUSION AND LIMITED OUTFLOW ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
TY 16W SLIGHTLY BEFORE THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL AND DISSIPATES OVER
LAND BY TAU 36. 
   D. CURRENT AND FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR
AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST TEAM: KENDALL/KLINZMANN/HEILER//
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