WDPN32 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 16W (RANANIM)
/WARNING NR 14//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 110000Z2 TO 140000Z5 AUG 2004.
    A. TYPHOON (TY) 16W (RANANIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
102330Z9 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS.
   B. TY 16W CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AND WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO A
WESTWARD TRACK BY MID-PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO A RIDGE OVER
NORTHEASTERN CHINA BUILDING EASTWARD. LANDFALL IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR AT APPROXIMATELY 48 HOURS SOUTH OF SHANGHAI, CHINA.
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET EGRR, JGSM,
NCEP GFS, GFDN, JTYM, AFWA MM5, COAMPS, AND WBAR ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS.
   C. THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THOUGH
RADIAL OUTFLOW IN THE EQUATORWARD DIRECTION REMAINS CONSISTENT.
THE MODERATE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WILL BE BALANCED BY THE NEGATIVE IMPACTS OF APPROACHING LAND FOR
ONLY MINIMAL FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AFTER 18 TO 24 HOURS. TY
16W IS FORECAST TO DISIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 72. 
   D. CURRENT AND FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON RECENT QUIKSCAT
DATA AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM.   
3. FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/PITTS/FJELD/VOHS//

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