WDPN32 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W
/WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 080000Z8 TO 110000Z4 AUG 2004.
   A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 16W (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
540 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 072330Z5 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25, 30 AND
35 KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIR-
CULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN THE DIFFUSE
CONVECTION. RECENT QUIKSCAT IMAGERY REVEALS WEAK WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LLCC AND STRONGER WINDS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST. 
   B. TD 16W IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
NEAR EQUATORIAL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH SEPARATING THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT EASTWARD
AFTER TAU 24. THIS WILL ALLOW THE RIDGES TO MERGE AND SHIFT THE
TRACK OF TD 16W MORE NORTHEASTWARD. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD SHIFTING THE TRACK MORE POLEWARD. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, JGSM, UKMET EGRR, NCEP GFS ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN THE STRENGTH
OF THE COMBINED RIDGE IN THE LATER TAUS. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. 
   C. TD 16W WILL BE MOVING IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR AND MODERATE OUTFLOW. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
ALLOW TD 16W TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE TO TYPHOON
STRENGTH BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 
   D. CURRENT AND FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR
AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST TEAM: KENDALL/KLINZMAN/HEILER//
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