WDPN32 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W
/WARNING NR 05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 050000Z5 TO 070000Z7 AUG 2004.
   A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 15W (MALOU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
170 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KYOTO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 042330Z2 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. 
   B. TD 15W IS OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN AND TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE CENTERED EAST
OF JAPAN. TD 15W IS BEGINNING TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AS IT
APPROACHES THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE AND BEGINS
TO RECEIVE STEERING INFLUENCE FROM THE SOUTHWEST GRADIENT FLOW PRODUCED
BY THE STEERING RIDGE INTERACTING WITH AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, EGRR, NCEP GFS, GFDN,
AFWA MM5, JGSM, JTYM, COAMPS AND WBAR ARE IN MODERATE AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS
OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. 
   C. TD 15W IS MOVING RAPIDLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS UNFAVORABLE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT INCLUDING INCREASED WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM HAS LOST ORGANIZATION DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION AS IT TRACKED OVER JAPAN. TD 15W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
INTENSITY UNTIL APPROXIMATELY TAU 24 AS IT RECEIVES SOME POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. AFTER TAU 24 TD 15W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INTERACTION WITH LAND AS IT MAKES LANDFALL
OVER HOKKAIDO, JAPAN AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
   D. CURRENT AND FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR
AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM.
   3. FORECAST TEAM: DIXON/BOWER/MENEBROKER/TRICKEY/FUNK//
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