WDPN31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 071200Z0 TO 090000Z9 AUG 2004.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W (MERANTI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
650 NM NORTHWEST OF MIDWAY ISLAND, HAS TRACKED
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 071130Z2 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS TS
14W IS BEING SHEARED IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A PARTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.
   B. TS 14W HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS 
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE 
WHICH IS MOVING EASTWARD. THE TRACK IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE 
NORTHWARD AFTER THE EARLY PERIOD WITH THE APPROACH OF A MAJOR
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED FOR THIS 
SYSTEM BY TAU 36 AS TS 14W LINKS UP WITH THE MAJOR SHORTWAVE. 
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, JGSM, JTYM, 
UKMET EGRR, NCEP GFS, AFWA MM5, AND WBAR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL 
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. 
   C. THE PREVIOUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS BEING WEAKENED BY THE RIDGE MOVING EASTWARD. THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM IS BEING SHEARED BY A RIDGE TO THE 
SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND COOLER 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BEFORE 
IT COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN 36 HOURS.
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS. 
FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED 
SYSTEM UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
3. FORECAST TEAM: MOHAMMED/LEFFLER/JACOBS/LEWIN//