WTPN31 PGTW 280900 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 13W (NAMTHEUN) WARNING NR 014 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 280600Z6 --- NEAR 31.2N6 141.6E2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 31.2N6 141.6E2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z9 --- 31.6N0 140.3E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z7 --- 31.7N1 139.0E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z0 --- 31.7N1 137.5E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z9 --- 31.7N1 136.0E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z0 --- 32.5N0 132.7E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z7 --- 34.0N7 131.5E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z8 --- 36.7N6 131.2E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 280900Z9 POSITION NEAR 31.3N7 141.3E9. TYPHOON (TY) 13W (NAMTHEUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 280530Z8 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SLIGHTLY IMPROVED OUTFLOW INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW FEATURE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z6 IS 30 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z6, 282100Z3, 290300Z4 AND 290900Z0.//