WDPN31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 12W 
/WARNING NR 8//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 150000Z6 TO 180000Z9 JUL 2004.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (KOMPASU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
310 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, CHINA HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
142330Z3 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY 
INDICATE THE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS WEAKER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN 
QUADRANT OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
   B. THE SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE STEERING RIDGE HAS
WEAKENED, ALLOWING TS 12W TO TRACK A MORE WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. TS 12W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. IN THE MID-PERIOD, THE SYSTEM
WILL ALTER TO A POLEWARD TRACK, MAKING LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN CHINA
NEAR THE 48 HOUR TAU. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, UKMET, NCEP GFS, JTYM, COAMPS, AFWA MM5 AND WBAR ARE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. 
   C. TS 12W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED FROM THE EAST BY MID
LEVEL FLOW. RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DRY AIR ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH IS FORECAST TO HINDER
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM SOMEWHAT. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL
REMAIN POLEWARD AND WEAK TO MODERATE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TS 12W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY
OVER WATER BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL AND THEN DISSIPATE OVER CHINA
NEAR THE 48 HOUR TAU.
   D. CURRENT AND FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR
A SMALL SYSTEM. 
3. FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/KLINZMANN/HEILER//

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