WDPN31 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W 
/WARNING NR 4//
RMKS/

1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 140000Z5 TO 170000Z8 JUL 2004.
   A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 12W (KOMPASU), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 270 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KAOSHIUNG, TAIWAN
HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 132330Z2 MULTI-SPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 132220Z0 SSMI IMAGE. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
30 KNOTS. 
   B. TD 12W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A RESULT OF A MID LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET, NCEP GFS, JGSM, AND WBAR ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. 
   C. TD 12W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED FROM THE EAST BY MID
LEVEL FLOW WHICH HAS PARTIALLY EXPOSED THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL REMAIN POLEWARD AND WEAK
TO MODERATE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TD 12W IS FORECAST
TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS PRIOR TO LANDFALL IN
TAIWAN. THE REMNANTS OF 12W WILL PROPAGATE WITH THE TROPICAL 
EASTERLIES AND FINALLY DISSIPATE OVER CHINA LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
   D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR A SMALL
SYSTEM. 
3. FORECAST TEAM: ARENDS/BOWER/NOREN/VOHS//

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