WDPN31 PGTW 131500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W /WARNING NR 2// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 131200Z7 TO 161200Z0 JUL 2004. A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 12W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM SOUTH OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 131130Z9 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS. B. TD 12W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE IS BEING PROVIDED BY THE TROPICAL EASTERLIES. HOWEVER, THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST OF TD 12W MAY BE PROVIDING A STEERING CONTRIBUTION ALSO. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET, NCEP GFS, JGSM, JTYM AND WBAR INITIALIZE POORLY ON THIS SYSTEM. THE SPREAD OF FORECAST TRACKS FOR THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN MODERATE AGREEMENT HOWEVER, THE AIDS UNDERREPRESENT THE STRENGTH OF TD 12W. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. C. TD 12W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. TD 12W HAS EXITED A REGION OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TD 12W IS FORECAST SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSITY MAINTAINANCE AT APPROXIMATELY TAU 36 AS THE SYSTEM PASSES OVER SOUTHERN TAIWAIN. TD 12W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER CHINA LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM. 3. FORECAST TEAM: DIXON/MENEBROKER/FUNK// NNNN